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Women's March Madness: 3 Opening-Round Upsets to Watch

The women’s tournament typically sees less chaos than the men’s,
but these three matchups look ripe for an upset.

Women's March Madness upsets

March Madness is defined by upsets, but historically, the women’s tournament plays out a bit differently than the men’s. While the men’s side is synonymous with chaos and double-digit Cinderella runs, the women’s bracket tends to be much chalkier. The top powerhouses usually take care of business early, but this season, a handful of teams look vulnerable in the first round.

Here are three matchups where a lower seed might send the favorite packing.

1. (10) Tennessee over (7) NC State

This game is easily the most intriguing of the first round, featuring two programs that have largely underperformed their Top 15 preseason expectations. Tennessee has spent the last month in a tailspin—dropping seven straight and looking out of sync—while NC State remains in a state of flux after a string of February stumbles and a lopsided exit from the ACC Tournament.

Despite the Lady Vols’ late-season slide, this matchup favors them. If Janiah Barker, Zee Spearman, and Talaysia Cooper can lock in, Tennessee’s length and athleticism will overwhelm a smaller NC State rotation. While Zoe Brooks and Zam Jones are elite shot-makers, both stand under 6 feet. If Brooks goes off, the Wolfpack have a path to win, but doing so against Tennessee’s verticality remains a massive challenge. When engaged, this Tennessee roster has the personnel to hang with anyone; this is the game where they put it all together.

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2. (9) Princeton over (8) Oklahoma State

Princeton enters the tournament as one of the hottest teams in the country, riding a dominant win streak that secured both the Ivy League regular season and tournament titles. Conversely, Oklahoma State has been on a bit of a roller coaster; while the Cowgirls have high-scoring potential, their rhythm has been interrupted by inconsistent play throughout Big 12 action.

The edge in this “mini upset” goes to the Tigers because of their veteran composure. Princeton is a battle-tested group making their fifth straight trip to the Big Dance, led by senior Madison St. Rose. In a game that will likely be decided by execution in the final minutes, the more steady and experienced Tigers should prevail.

3. (9) USC over (8) Clemson

Despite being the lower seed and traveling across the country for a pseudo-road game in South Carolina, USC enters this matchup as the betting favorite and we agree. While Clemson has had a historic season—securing 21 wins for the first time in 25 years—they often struggle against the type of elite, versatile length the Trojans bring to the floor.

USC’s path to this mini-upset lies in their disruptive defense. If Kennedy Smith, Kara Dunn, and Jazzy Davidson can use their length to shrink the floor and disrupt Clemson’s rhythm, the Tigers will find it difficult to execute their balanced attack. Expect this to be a grind, but much like the Tennessee matchup, USC’s superior athleticism and defensive activity should eventually prevail.

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WNBA Draft Battleground: Angela Dugalić vs Janiah Barker vs Justine Pissott

The Series: WNBA Draft Battleground

Angela Dugalić vs Janiah Barker vs Justine Pissott

In this series, we go toe-to-toe with the toughest evaluations in the 2026 class. In this installment, we’re going with a three-headed matchup: three 6-foot-4, versatile prospects who play like guards and are projected in the late first to second round.

Round 7: Angela Dugalić vs Janiah Barker vs Justine Pissott

When drafting in this range, teams aren’t expecting to draft a franchise cornerstone. They are looking for players who can fill a specific need or offer undeniable upside. We pit their different playstyles against each other to answer the question: Which of these players projects as the best pro?

We break down the matchup ⬇️

Prospect Profile: Angela Dugalić
The Case For

Versatile Skillset: Angela Dugalić is a polished, two-way forward who  can operate as a stretch four due to her three-point shooting. Beyond spacing the floor, she has the handle to bring the ball up the court and act as a secondary playmaker.

Defensive Connector: She fills necessary gaps—using her length to guard multiple positions, securing the glass, or providing minutes as a backup center.

The Case Against

The Age Factor: As a sixth-year college player, the biggest question mark is simply how much upside she has left to unlock.

Athletic Limitations: She lacks the elite, explosive athleticism often needed at the next level.

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Prospect Profile: Janiah Barker
The Case For

Elite Athleticism: Janiah Barker is one of the most athletically gifted players in this draft class. At 6-foot-4, her pure physical tools give her a sky-high ceiling at the next level.

Dynamic Versatility: She can do a little bit of everything, especially when it comes to dominating the glass. Offensively, she creates constant mismatches because she can put the ball on the floor, post up smaller defenders, and stretch the floor with three-point shooting.

The Case Against

Decision-Making: While her physical talent is undeniable, her overall feel for the game is still a work in progress. She can be overly aggressive at times, leading to rushed reads and sequences where she plays faster than she processes.

Turnover Prone: Her raw potential is sometimes offset by mistakes with the ball. She has a tendency to follow up a spectacular highlight with an unforced turnover, meaning she will need significant polish and coaching to translate her physical gifts into reliable, night-to-night production.

Prospect Profile: Justine Pissott
The Case For

Shooting Specialist: Pissott brings one of the most highly coveted skills to the next level: pure, translatable perimeter shooting. At 6-foot-4, she is a jumbo guard in the mold of Katie Lou Samuelson.

Offensive Spacing: She doesn’t need the ball in her hands to make an impact. She provides immediate value for any team looking to fill a specific roster need with a specialist who can hit open shots.

The Case Against

Limited Versatility: While Dugalić and Barker can shift between multiple roles, Pissott is heavily reliant on her one elite skill. She doesn’t offer the same level of rebounding, defense, or dynamic playmaking as her peers in this matchup.

Defensive Matchups: Finding a clean defensive assignment for her at the pro level could be a challenge. She’ll likely struggle to stay in front of WNBA guards, and she lacks the physicality to consistently battle traditional post players in the paint.

Angela Dugalić Janiah Barker Justine Pissott Advantage
Height 6'4" 6'4" 6'4" Tie
Draft Age 24 22 22 Barker & Pissott
Athleticism Functional Elite; explosive Lacks explosiveness Barker
Shooting Inside-Out Threat 3-Level (Post, Drive, 3PT) Pure Catch-and-Shoot Barker
Defense High IQ; positional Disruptive but developing Vulnerable to mismatches Dugalić
Decision Making Low mistakes (high usage) High turnovers Low mistakes (low usage) Dugalić
WNBA Readiness Pro-ready rotation player Long-term project Pro-ready specialist Dugalić

The Verdict: Who Projects as the Better Pro?

When navigating the later rounds of the WNBA draft, front offices aren’t typically swinging for superstars—they are searching for reliable rotational players. While the baseline expectation is finding a high-floor rookie, a prospect’s ability to stick on a roster is dependent on filling a specific gap for the franchise that drafts them.

If a front office desperately needs perimeter spacing, Justine Pissott is the pick. If a team has a longer development timeline and wants to swing for a sky-high ceiling, Janiah Barker’s elite physical tools make her the obvious choice.

However, because landing a dependable rotation piece is the primary goal, the edge goes to Angela Dugalić by a very slim margin. She lacks Barker’s explosive upside, but her high basketball IQ, positional defense, and inside-out game make her the most likely to fit the exact bill of a WNBA rotation player. Her polished, versatile profile makes her the safest bet to carve out a reliable, long-term pro career.

Winner: Angela Dugalić

Final Call: Dugalić wins the matchup.

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March Madness: Stock Up, Stock Down

The WNBA Draft Stock Report: Risers and Fallers

WNBA Draft Stock March Madness

On college basketball’s biggest stage, March is where prospects separate themselves. One signature performance can redefine a career—much like Sarah Ashlee Barker, whose 45-point outburst in a double-overtime tournament loss displayed the toughness and clutch play that propelled her into a first round selection for the Los Angeles Sparks.

As the 2026 tournament begins, we’re looking at who is rising to the moment. For seniors, these games are a final chance to help their draft stock. For underclassmen, it’s about proving they are next in line.

📈 Tournament Risers

Britt Prince | G | Nebraska

Nebraska’s tournament stay was short, but Britt Prince used the national stage to confirm her 50/40/90 regular-season slash line was no fluke. Over two games, she averaged 24.5 points, 3.5 rebounds, and 3.5 assists while shooting 54.5/50/100. More than just a shooter, she hunted her own looks off the bounce and created for teammates with poise. Just a sophomore, Prince is a name to watch.

Ava Heiden | C | Iowa

Iowa’s season ended in a double overtime thriller, but Heiden was a force in the paint. She put up 29 and 26 points in her two tournament appearances, providing steady, efficient scoring that kept the Hawkeyes in it until the final buzzer. Her footwork and touch are reminiscent of fellow Iowa product Monika Czinano, but she operates with a quicker burst to her spots. Even in the loss, Heiden proved she is the next great efficient post for the Hawkeyes.

Joyce Edwards & Ta’Niya Latson | South Carolina

Joyce Edwards has been the engine for South Carolina, averaging 25 points and 9 rebounds through two rounds while shooting 62% from the floor. Meanwhile, as we noted in our Flau’jae vs. Ta’Niya breakdown, the big question for Latson this March was whether she could impact winning beyond scoring. She’s answered by recording 6 and 5 assists while also averaging 4 steals in the two games. Latson is proving she is more than just a bucket-getter.

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📉 Tournament Fallers

Tennessee Women’s Basketball Program

Listing an entire program as a “Faller” is a strong statement, but the current state of Tennessee is impossible to ignore. The team closed the year on a dismal eight-game losing streak, a first in the program’s NCAA era. Compounding the situation is senior Janiah Barker, whose absence in the first-round loss—officially ruled as an illness—leaves a cloud over her draft potential. Missing the biggest game of the year makes a slide in the draft a real possibility. The fallout has continued into the off-season; three days after their first-round loss, Deniya Prawl and Alyssa Latham have both announced their intentions to enter the transfer portal.

Saylor Poffenbarger & Yarden Garzon | G | Maryland

For two seniors with WNBA aspirations, the first-weekend exit was a missed opportunity. Neither Poffenbarger nor Garzon did enough to seize control in their Round of 32 loss to North Carolina, combining to go 0-for-16 from deep. For Poffenbarger, the game reinforced questions about her shooting inconsistencies, while Garzon continued to struggle to find rhythm as a playmaker.

Helpful Links

Stream Big 12, ACC & SEC games on ESPN, ESPN2, ACCN, SECN, ESPN+ & more. Includes Disney+ and Hulu. Starting at 29.99/mo.

WNBA Draft Battleground: Flau'jae Johnson vs. Ta'Niya Latson

The Series: WNBA Draft Battleground

Flau'jae Johnson vs. Ta'Niya Latson

In this series, we go toe-to-toe with the toughest evaluations in the 2026 class. In this installment, we’re evaluating two explosive, undersized scoring guards who have had to transition from being the primary engine to playing a reduced role this season.

Round 6: Flau’jae Johnson vs Ta’Niya Latson

Box scores don’t tell the full story when a player goes from being “the system” to playing within one. For Flau’jae Johnson and Ta’Niya Latson, the challenge is proving their skill sets can translate into winning roles on stacked rosters. We pit them against each other to answer: Which player projects as the better pro?

We break down the matchup ⬇️

Prospect Profile: Flau’jae Johnson

The Case For

Athleticism: Johnson’s explosive physical tools and transition scoring are tailor-made for the WNBA. Her open-floor speed and downhill finishing are highly translatable, suggesting she might actually be a better pro than college player.

The Case Against

Size: At 5-foot-10, she is undersized for a WNBA wing. She will have to rely heavily on her athleticism and motor to avoid being a mismatch against bigger and stronger pro wings.

Engagement Concerns: She has remained efficient on lower usage this season, but there are noticeable stretches where she looks unengaged and out of sync. This raises questions about her ability to stay impactful when operating strictly as a role player at the next level.

Fan Hub

This post may contain affiliate links. Please read the disclosure policy.

As one of the top names to watch for in the 2026 WNBA Draft, her journey is happening right now on the college court. Track the next generation of talent and see a future pro in the making.

Rep Her College Colors: Before she gets to the WNBA, she’s a star for her university. This is the best place to find all the officially licensed gear for her team.

Get on Board: Get the “Everyone Watches Women’s Basketball” Hoodie. 

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Prospect Profile: Ta’Niya Latson

The Case For

Elite Creation: Latson possesses an elite first step and the ability to break down defenses and finish in traffic. She maintains an undeniable alpha scoring mentality, constantly putting pressure on defenses.

Drawing Fouls: She is a master at drawing contact. Her aggressive, downhill style forces defenders into mistakes, allowing her to generate easy points at the free-throw line.

The Case Against

Size and Defense: At 5-foot-8, she will likely be targeted by bigger, more physical WNBA guards, making it difficult to find clean defensive matchups for her on a nightly basis.

Off-Ball Impact: While she has posted better efficiency numbers on lower usage this season, her value remains tied to her scoring. This raises questions about her ability to impact the game when the ball isn’t in her hands.

Flau'jae Johnson Ta'Niya Latson Advantage
Height 5'10" 5'8" Johnson
Draft Age 22 22 Tie
Athleticism Explosive; transition-built Elite burst Tie
Shooting Reliable mid-range & 3pt shot 3-Level creator Latson
Defense Versatile; high motor Inconsistent Johnson
Decision Making High-efficiency; low turnover Evolving facilitator; reduced TOs Tie
WNBA Readiness Two-way wing Explosive scoring spark Johnson

The Verdict: Who Projects as the Better Pro?

Flau’jae Johnson is the more versatile bet for the modern WNBA. While neither guard has prototypical wing size, Johnson’s taller frame, elite transition athleticism, and two-way game ultimately give her the edge over Latson. While Latson is the more natural scorer, Johnson’s defensive motor and ability to impact games without high usage make her the more translatable prospect.

The Edge: Flau’jae Johnson

🏀 Tournament Watch

  • Flau’jae Johnson (#2 LSU vs. #15 Jacksonville): Today at 6:00 PM ET (ESPN). After scoring in single digits in two of her last three games, the focus is on whether Johnson can re-establish her aggressive scoring mentality.

  • Ta’Niya Latson (#1 South Carolina vs. #16 Southern): Tomorrow, 1:00 PM ET (ABC). For Latson, the narrative is about total game impact. Moving away from just “point hunting,” she’ll be judged on her ability to influence winning through playmaking and defensive engagement while operating within a deep rotation.

The Bottom Line: A deep run fueled by aggressive, multi-dimensional play could secure a top lottery spot.

Helpful Links

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